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In this issue...
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Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curves

Detection problems are a subclass of classification such that there are only two classes – one that indicates the detection of a particular event or attribute and the other is the non-detection of that event or attribute. For example, a cancer diagnosis system would be a good example of a detection system – it would produce a 1 if cancer was detected and a -1 if it was not detected.

In NeuroSolutions, 2-class problems can either be encoded into 2 output PEs (e.g., Detection-> -1/1; Non-detection->1/-1) or 1 output PE (e.g., Detection->1; Non-detection->-1). For the former case, the output with the highest value corresponds to the predicted class. In the latter case, any values above a threshold would be classified as one class and any values below would be classified as the other class. By default, this threshold is set to 0.

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) matrices are used to show how changing the detection threshold affects detections versus false alarms. If the threshold is set too high then the system will miss too many detections. Conversely, if the threshold is set too low then there will be too many false alarms. Below is an example of an ROC matrix graphed as an ROC curve.



Figure 1: Example ROC Curve

In NeuroSolutions, a ROC matrix is created by attaching a MatrixViewer probe to the ROC access point of the ErrorCriterion component (or selecting the “ROC” checkbox within the “Probe Configuration” panel of the NeuralBuilder). The matrix contains three columns: 1) the detection threshold, 2) the percentage of detections classified correctly, and 3) the percentage of non-detections incorrectly classified as detections (i.e., false alarms). The number of thresholds (i.e., rows of the matrix) is defined within the Error Criteria inspector (i.e., right-click on the rightmost Axon and select “Properties”).

To use the information contained within the ROC matrix, you first find the threshold that meets the needs of your particular application. For example, if your application were cancer diagnosis, you may want to find the threshold that gives you 100% detections, but has the fewest false alarms. You can then change the “Confusion Threshold” setting within the Error Criteria inspector so that any attached Confusion Matrices will report the classifications based on this new threshold instead of 0.

At the present time there is no way to produce a graph in NeuroSolutions like the one shown in the figure above. However, you can export the data for the ROC matrix using a DataWriter probe, and then graph those points using an external graphing program such as Excel.

   Customer Spotlight   
Customer Spotlight: Using Neural Networks to Distinguish Kinematics in Use Wear Analysis

BARCELO, J.A. PIJOAN-LOPEZ,J

Abstract

Archaeologists studying lithic remains usually wish to determine whether or not these stones have been used as tools and how they were used. The best way to do this is through the analysis of macro- and microscopic traces of wear generated by the use of the tool.

Complete application summary available at: http://www.neurosolutions.com/resources/apps/tool.doc

Want to have your solutions spotlighted?
We strongly encourage our customers to send their 1-2 page application summaries to info@nd.com. We frequently spotlight solutions in our newsletters and post them on our web site at: http://www.neurosolutions.com/resources/apps/

   Courses and Learning   
TradingSolutions Live Online Introductory Course

Ever wanted someone to walk you through getting started in TradingSolutions? Well here is your chance!

TradingSolutions Live is an introductory online course in which a standard web-browser is used to view the instructor's computer screen.

The course provides a broad overview of TradingSolutions v3.0 covering everything from creating a “traditional” rule-based trading system to creating a powerful neural network trading system. Neural network systems have a distinct advantage over rule-based systems in that they learn patterns directly from historical data, allowing you to create systems with more accurate signals for entering and exiting positions.

More information and to sign up for a course, visit: http://www.tradingsolutions.com/resources/tslive.html

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